Tuesday
November 03, 2009
In some heavy PLO action the previous night, durrrr had another difficult outing losing $850K combined to Phil Ivey and Ziigmund. Seeing how he is also having a tough time in the mixed games lately, it is probably not the cheeriest of periods at ‘Casa Dwan’. He is obviously running bad, but in a few hands it also seems like he is pressing a bit.
Durrrr tries the triple barrel bluff but gets picked off by Ziigmund’s turned flush in a $235K pot.
This hand is a case in point. The 3-bet before the flop can be discussed, but a lot of pots are 3-bet light these days, and a double suited, connected hand is a pretty good heads-up hand anyway. It is more the second and in particular the third barrel that is a bit dubious here. Once Ziigmund calls the turn, it is quite unlikely that he will not also call the river since nothing really changed when the deuce fell on the end. But the main objection I have with his bluff is that it is even more difficult to get away with a bluff when you are running as bad as durrrr is doing right now.
Ziigmund flops the nut straight, but Ivey’s two pair fills up on the river to take the $217K pot.
Ziigmund was having a very good session winning a cool half million dollars, but in this hand he got really unlucky. On the given flop, it is understandable that Ivey was willing to go all the way with his hand. Two pairs and the lower straight give him a lot of equity against Ziigmund’s range, but this time he was severely dominated. The thing about having winners, though, is that once in a while you actually do suck out, and the jack on the river must have been a welcome sight for Ivey, and an equally frustrating one for Ziigmund.
Ivey flops a full house and Ziigmund chooses the wrong time to make a bluff. $329K pot.
On this hand, I think Ziigmund gets overly creative. I can sympathise with him trying to steal the pot with the raise on the flop. Dry boards like this offer such opportunities, and the fact that he is also holding a nine in his hand significantly reduces the chance of his opponent holding a big hand. I don’t, however, understand much of his call of Ivey’s 4-bet. It must be clear to him at this point that the only way he is going to win this pot is to make Ivey fold at some point. This means that he will have to invest $32K for the call on the flop plus almost $109K on a bluff somewhere along the line to win the $80K that is in the pot after Ivey’s 4-bet. He will have to get away with this play 64% of the time, and the way Ivey played the hand on the flop, I am sure that Ziigmund is nowhere near getting the right price on this hand.
Ivey, on the other hand, played the hand pretty much to perfection. When he was raised on the flop, he probably put Ziigmund on a 4 and wanted to build a large pot immediately before any potential flushes appeared to scare his opponent from giving him action. When Ziigmund only called the 4-bet, Ivey probably put him on a drawing hand and gave him a free card on the turn, hoping that Ziigmund would hit a flush on the river. Of course, Ivey’s check on the turn also gave Ziigmund the chance to make a big bluff on the river, and the rest is, as they say, history. Ziigmund landed solidly with both feet in Ivey’s trap, but mostly it was Ziigmund himself who cost himself close to $141K with his silly call on the flop.
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