Wednesday
November 11, 2009
Well, it doesn’t seem like any of these combattants are have any plans to end this match any time soon. Yesterday, just before 8pm EST they were at it again, and as I write this, they are still going strong playing 6 tables of $500/$1000 No-limit Hold’em. They took a 25 minute break at 03:30 EST, and at that point, durrrr was up a little more than $150K. Seeing how he was up close to 1.7 million doll.ars at one point, this probably doesn’t feel like much of a win for him. The battle continues however, and it will be interesting to see where they stand when they collapse at their respective keyboards at the end of the session.
Isildur1 has Aces against durrrr’s AKs and all the money goes in before the flop. $695K pot.
Both players turn a flush and a straight draw to go along with their pair, but durrrr find himself dominated. $611K pot.
The only thing that have been missing from the match so far is a pot that goes into the top ten list of the largest pots ever, but it was only a matter of time before it happened. The first of these two hands is now the third largest pot we have on record, and is quite a bit of a cooler for durrrr. Again, some people will question if it is a good play to end up all in preflop with AKs, but when he moves in, his bet will be about 38% of the pot if he is called. And even if he KNOWS that Isildur has AA, KK, AKo or AKs and he will always be called, he has just over 40% equity with AKs. Widen Isildur1’s range just a little bit, and consider that he might fold just a few hands in that range, it becomes clear that Durrrr made the right play. He just got unlucky at the wrong time, that’s all.
The second $600K+ pot really falls in the same category. The way the pot has been played when durrrr moves in, it is perfectly feasible that Isildur1 has a hand he has to lay down now. Should Isildur call, durr can have as many as 16 winners. Again, if he is sure that he will get called, he will need 45% equity for his move to be correct, but on this hand I think his fold equity is considerable, so moving in is quite likely a +EV play. Even with the hand Isildur1 held now, it is far from clear cut that he should call. If he is behind, he needs 40% equity to make the call correct. He has 19 potential winners, so if they are all live, it is a marginally good call. The good thing about his hand is that it is impossible for him to both be beat AND be on a lower flush draw since he has paired the highest non-spade card on the board. This is probably a key observation that tilts the decision in favour of calling since he is now likely to have durrrr beat if durrrr has moved in on a semi bluff.
As it was, durrrr was thoroughly dominated, and going into the river an 8-1 underdog found no salvation from the card gods.
Both of these hands came in the last 20 minutes of the break, and were a huge factor in Isildur1’s comeback. We will see what happens in the second half, and we will be sure to get back with a new report as soon as possible after they finish playing for the day.
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