Saturday
January 30, 2010
Just a few days ago I warned about the russans, and just a few day later, we could witness PostflopAction aka Alexander Kostritsyn have the biggest run of the year. Almost all of his profits came in the seven game, and it was in particular Ziigmund who got the wrong end of the heater, losing about $500K in the process. Ziigmund managed to win back about $100K from the others, but in all it was a bit of a black day for him.
PostflopAction flops two pairs and improves to a straight on the river to win a $317K pot
The largest pot of the day, and it was a quite interesting one. Preflop, I like Ziigmund’s hand better than his opponents, but in fact they are almost exactly evenly matched in a showdown. Ziigmund would have 0.14% better EV than PostflopAction at this point, though that is more of academic interest than anything else.
The flop was quite good for both players - Ziigmund had 11 winners for a straight, all of which would give him the nuts, while PostflopAction hit two pairs, which, as we have seen repeatedly, is being played as the nuts at this level. However, the players were not ready to let the action take off quite yet. Playing this deep stacked I am sure that PostFlopAction wanted to control the pot size since he will not be in a good spot if he should raise and see Ziigmund come back over the top of him. We’ll never know what would have happened, but with such a nice draw I have a feeling that Ziigmund would have done just that. He is likely to have the correct odds if the hand should go to a showdown, there would be tons of fold equity and finally, it would take away his opponents positional advantage.
On the turn, it was quite natural for Ziigmund to fire another barrel. He picked up a flush draw, and there are a few hands in PostflopAction’s range that can’t stand a pot bet here. To Ziigmund’s misfortune, however, PostflopAction’s hand improved immensely when the queen of spades fell, so he had an equally reasonable raise in this spot. Seeing the cards, it is clear that Ziigmund doesn’t have sufficient pot odds to make the call, but had his flush draw been live it would have been a clear + EV call. And since it is not unlikely that his opponent has a set or top two pairs in this spot, Ziigmund’s call becomes clear cut.
It is worth noting that Ziigmund did not put in his last $12K on the turn. There is virtually no chance that his hand will be good if he doesn’t hit a straight or a flush on the river, so why waste that money? Had a blank come off, I presume he would have check folded. Now, when he hits the straight he has to bet out. He will always call a $12K bet if he checks in front, so there is no point in letting his opponent check it down with a hand like two pairs or a set. Unfortunately for Ziigmund, PostflopAction had his straight covered, so that jack on the river only ended up costing Ziigmund some extra cash.
Ziigmund and PostflopAction both turns top two pairs, but PostflopAction hits a straight on the river. $221K pot.
This hand is interesting because it shows what kind of trouble you can get into if you 3-bet marginal hands before the flop. I don’t like Ziigmund’s 3-bet here with a very uncoordinated hand. He is out of position and might have to play a big pot with a bad hand, which is exactly what happens after PostflopAction’s 4-bet.
When Ziigmund hits top pair on the flop, he feels that he has to take one card off to see what happens, but in fact, he is an 8-1 underdog here. If he hadn’t made the 3-bet before the flop, the pot would just have been $3600 at this point, so a call would have been quite cheap, but now he has to pay nine times as much to see what the turn brings. The ten of clubs was as good a card as Ziigmund could hope for, but even so he is in a really bad spot. He only has three winners to scoop the pot, while PostFlopAction can hit almost half the deck for an outright win. In reality, Ziigmund is drawing to split the pot, and that is not an enviable position to be in. The seven of clubs on the end sealed the deal in favor of PostflopAction, and in my opinion, deservedly so. Sometimes, justice is served in poker.
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