It was short, but for Ziigmund there was nothing sweet about the match of $300/$600 PLO he played against Cole South yesterday. A $787K loss in just 320 hands is among the most brutal beatings we have seen in a while. It turns out to be $2459 per hand, four big blinds per hand or 204BB/100 in Poker Tracker lingo. No wonder Ziigmund quit playing for the day.
From the graph you can see that things went a bit back and forth for the first 90 hands, but from then on it all want South, literally, for Ziigmund. The last 80 hands accounted for nearly half of his losses, so it is not unreasonable to suspect him of tilting a bit.
South’s overpair holds up against Ziigmund’s two pair draw.
The largest pot of the day was played in the last ten minutes of the match and it shows that Ziigmund was probably quite heavily on tilt at this point. The hand he holds is really as close to trash as you can get in PLO, so raising out of the button, much less 4 betting is really not a recommended play. He is as much as a 2-1 underdog before the flop, and that is a lot considering which game we are talking about.
With this much money in the pot before the flop, Ziigmund has to call South’s shove on the turn with any semblance of a hit, so he has to call off another 87K. He has about 36% equity at this point, which is more or less what the pot is laying him. Unfortunately for Ziigmund, the deck was not in a mood for saving him from his poor play, so when the running fives came on the end, South could add another $136K to his already sizeable stack.
Couth makes an amazing call on the river to win a $234K pot.
This was the hand that started Ziigmund’s downfall, and though I will be careful about making any statements on Ziigmund’s state of mind after this hand, it is clear that it is such calls from your opponent that can get some players off their game. First of all, he misses all of his numerous draws, and then, adding insult to injury he gets called down by second pair, no kicker.
The bluff on the end will normally work against a hand like South hold’s here, and even if it worked this time, I think the call is marginal at best. The problem is that he can’t beat several of the hands that Ziigmund would be bluffing with. I imagine, for example, that Ziigmund would have played the same way with hands like AKQT and AKJT in which case South would be paying off $68K with nothing.
Cole South is freerolling and hits a straight on the river to win a 217K pot.
Ziigmund fades South’s draws in a $203K pot.
Ziigmund flops the nut straight, but South rivers a full house. $201K pot.
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