Wednesday
April 14, 2010
We don’t hear too much about the stud games these days, but sometimes they contribute greatly to a players winnings. Yesterday, for example, Gus Hansen was able to win $198K in the $1500/$3000 stud game alone. But he also went on to win $75K in PLO and about 120K in the other parts of the seven game, so it was a great performance all around.
It is also worth noting that MicahJ, the top winner from the previous day, continued his winning streak by pocketing a very nice $264K win. Half of this cane in a 252 hand PLO $100/$200 Match against NEKOTYAN who it seems has some trouble adjusting to MicahJ’s game. It will be interesting to see of these two will resume the hostilities in the near future.
Hansens’s medium pair holds up against Antonius’ overcards. $77K pot.
A classical coinflip hand, but it is quite interesting to see how the player’s reasoning here. Firstly, Hansen makes a very big 3-bet with his sevens. A pot sized re-raise would have been to $4200 in total, so $10200 is a very large raise. With the stacks that the players have in this hand, such a raise certainly indicates that Hansen is willing to play for all of his chips. On the other hand, it might also lead his opponents to believe that Hansen has a marginal hand and that he would prefer that they fold. Obviously, he could also make this bet with a strong hand to keep his opponents guessing, but the most common read of such a move will always be that the player does not want any action.
From Antonius’ shove we can learn that he was not putting Hansen on a premium hand. He will have a hard time getting Hansen to fold any sort of hand in this spot, so he must have figured that ATs had the necessary 49,6% equity against Hansen’s range. A quick simulation on pokerstove reveals that the break even point for ATs here is when Hansen 3-bets the top 15% of his range. Add a few bluffs to that and we get a pretty good idea of which range Antonius was putting Hansen on here. Incidentally, sevens are the smallest pair that is included in this range, and for those who want the entire range, it is as follows: 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo.
So far I have more or less assumed that Hansen is pot committed here after his 3-bet, but it could be interesting to calculate if this is really the case. He needs to have 36.5% equity against Antonius’ shove range for the call to be correct. Going back to pokerstove, we find that Antonius need s to be shoving no tighter than the range 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AQo+ for Hansen to be correct to call in this spot. I will leave it up to you to consider how likely this is, but I was a bit surprised to see that there were some strong arguments for folding sevens here. I am fairly sure, however, that Hansen didn’t really calculate any ranges at this point and that he had already decided to play for stacks when he made his initial 3-bet.
MicahJ flops top set to crack NEKOTYAN’s aces. $94K pot
Cole South sucks out on the river to take down thecranium’s flopped set. $119K pot.
Cole South gets full value from his Kings. 109K pot
An interesting 3-way preflop all in where Ivey gets lucky and Hansen triples up.
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