Durrrr loses a cool million dollars.

Well, here’s to hoping that durrrr has a good rakeback deal with Full Tilt Poker, because on a day like he just finished, that would be his only consolation. He started out playing $500/$1000 against Phil Ivey, losing $423K in 462 hands and finished by playing a marathon session of 7928 hands against jungleman12.

Looking at the total result you have probably already figured out that durrrr lost $584K in this last match, but the main story here is that jungleman12 was actually down about $500K at one point, so he made a pretty good turnaround for a $200/$400 game.

Ivey flops top set and gets durrrr to pay him off with aces. $296K pot.

I have a bit of a hard time to figure out if durrrr really had to get stacked in this pot. He has the aces, but literally no re-draws, so it seems a bit strange that he has to commit this strongly here. Particularly since the pot was so small after the flop. On the other hand, Ivey is one player who can make any kind of move at any time so it is not easy to say what the right line is against him.

Normally I would expect durrrr to just call Ivey’s donk-bet on the flop, something that I have seen him do many times. Quite often, he likes to try to control the size of the pot in position with a vulnerable hand. I guess by raising he was trying to get some read on what Ivey held based on Ivey’s response to the raise, but once he got that response, he seemed to change his mind.

I don’t think that durrrr had much hope in getting Ivey to fold after Ivey had put $42K into the pot, so he must have figured that his aces had the necessary equity to warrant the big shove after Ivey’s re-raise. Before the shove, durrrr has about $128K left and the final pot will be $296K. This means that he needs to have a little more than 43% equity in the showdown for his play to be correct. Let’s take a quick look at the possible hands that Ivey could hold here with the corresponding EV’s for durrrr and an estimated frequency of each. In addition, let’s for argument’s sake that there is a 10% chance that Ivey is on a pure bluff and will fold to the shove:

As you can see, with my assumptions, durrrr expected return on the $128K shove is $96K, so even if I should be a little off, it seems that the play is ill advised in this spot. Obviously, there could be something I am missing here, but in all I think that, considering the action, durrrr would have been better off folding his aces on this flop.

Jungleman12 turns the nut straight and gets durrrr to pay him off. $282K pot

jungleman12 makes an ill timed bluff on the river. $240K pot.

An action turn gets durrrr to out his money in, but Ivey’s top two holds up. $222K pot.

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