Posted 15 November 2012 - 01:34 PM
Nasud's play on the flop is pretty much standard. He probably shouldn't be getting 27BB in pre with his hand out of position, but then again he probably shouldn't be playing Eire.
The 500bb is irrelevant when 27bb x 2 go in pre. It's the same as getting in 37bb in a min raised pot. AKA 3700 each @ 50/100... which I can assure you would occur on that flop all day by basically everyone.
Just think about it, there is $5,400 + $3,200 when it's nasuds action, if he call's the pot is $11,800 and he has 45k ish behind, and folding is entirely ridiculous if you are playing that hand preflop in the first place. Now, if he raises instead he is risking 45k ish to pick up $11,800 when Eire folds, and having, at a rough guess equity in the 2%-60% range, averaging very conservatively 37% when Eire gets it in.
With 37% equity his EV in the pot is (lets just assume 50k stacks cause I don't know exact) his EV is 37k / 100k pot. Thus he is losing 8k in EV by getting in his 45k. If 37% is correct... (admittedly it was a stone cold guess, argue this point if you like) then if Eire folds around 30-40% of the time it's +EV to check raise commit. There is no chance that Eire is getting it in >60% of the time... and if he is, well the nasud's EV is much higher than averaging 37%.
Moral of the story: Nasud made mistakes, but the mistake you look at was not wrong at all.