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Ilari and winner's tilt.


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#1 NasseNøffff

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 03:42 AM

poker_zoner (2012-11-03) This seems like a good time to discuss wt. Not saying Ilari was indeed suffering from it - the record shows he was ahead in some huge pots he lost yesterday. But we've all seen it enough to know. Someone wins HUGE then proceeds to lose it right back very quickly. You know intuitively that there is no way Ilari loses 900k this week if he didn't have that heater last week. Blom has to be the king of wt behavior. Not only is it topical, but its about the most tragic thing to behold in the game. Eireabu's rise and fall from 200/400 plo may be relevant to this discussion too, not sure.

Anyone want to share their experience or expertise on wt, cause its not just a high stakes phenomenon.



Its not that special, if he didnt win 2.5 mill the previous week, he wouldnt have 900k+ in his account, and thus would never lose that amount in one session without the previous heater, but with it, he got the cash at disposal and is able to lose it. Pretty much everyone who play poker i would guess have been through this, obv not in this scale, but losing back theire winnings from a heater in a short space of time.
I sure have, and i guess what separate us losers from the winners (except from skill + some more) is they know when to quit when running terrible.
Same as the myth about running like sht just after making a withdrawal ;)

#2 LMW87

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 02:51 AM

According to a Finnish translation of yesterday's chat between Ilari and Jeans, Ilari's mentioning of him being +300k in all-in EV (so 1.2 million under EV, sick) seemed like it was not just a figure of speech, but that it was the actual numbers (we know he uses hold'em manager now).

This seems realistic. He was definitely putting his money in good, and as usual was winning lots of pots without showdown (I'd guess he has the best redline of anyone at the nosebleeds).

It's just variance. He probably ran like a million maybe even 1.5mm over EV during his 2.6 million upswing, now he lost back some of the EV. It happens. It's only 22.5 BI.

#3 hatethis

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 02:43 AM

I def have....when i start to lose pots after ive been on a heater i cant take badbeats...and i can find it hard to lose standard hands in PLO ..i busted to many times because of this kind of tilt. I guess its easy to get so overconfident that you think you can win every hand no matter what the odds is after a heater. I feel like im unlucky..when im actually not unlucky...and cant handle the variance as good as before the heater.

So heaters sucks..if you cant handle normal beats or badbeats after it. I think this could be controlled better if you use a HUD. And isildur and Ilari isnt using one.
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#4 poker_zoner

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 02:52 AM

yeah if he holds in those big pots theres pretty much no loss, but i'm guessing he opened things up a bit too. anyway i find that if i'm playing with recently won money it doesn't really feel like it's 'mine' yet. in that mind set i often send it forth to multiply... a little too optimistically. the thought will even go through my head 'i don't really mind if i lose this money' indicating that i'm thinking emotionally about the cash and not logically about the hand. of course in plo you have to have such a sick resiliance to gamble and variance or it will crush you. big respect to the top plo players for that.

#5 poker_zoner

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 12:52 AM

This seems like a good time to discuss wt. Not saying Ilari was indeed suffering from it - the record shows he was ahead in some huge pots he lost yesterday. But we've all seen it enough to know. Someone wins HUGE then proceeds to lose it right back very quickly. You know intuitively that there is no way Ilari loses 900k this week if he didn't have that heater last week. Blom has to be the king of wt behavior. Not only is it topical, but its about the most tragic thing to behold in the game. Eireabu's rise and fall from 200/400 plo may be relevant to this discussion too, not sure.

Anyone want to share their experience or expertise on wt, cause its not just a high stakes phenomenon.

#6 polarizng

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 01:50 AM

hard to say i think illari ran really bad yesterday and isildur seems to give it away rather than get cooled but i think its a good topic if you look at those two players they are very similar so its no surprise when illari dumps back 900k i mean he lost over 1.2 in one hand against farha playing live back in the day so i dont think it bugs him,however i would really like to know isildurs bakroll and if he is playing at any other sites for lower stakes righht now somethin tells me he is...

#7 gamera

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:37 PM

Interesting topic.

The problem is emotional variance when we win and when we start losing. We feel too good when we win and then when variance kicks in and we lose some back we can't handle it and start to sulk. You won't cure it at the time it is happening as it's a mind-set of emotional stability that you either have all the time all day every day or else you don't have it. You can't just switch it on when you play poker or when on a good or bad run or whatever. If you don't have it right now reading this thread then you won't have in an hours time when you are hit with 3 suck-outs in 3 minutes. It's the crazy-monkey-mind playing fantasy games and running at 5 million miles per hour. It's hard to control.

Interesting to see Eire Abu mentioned. I remember at the start of his downswing I started a thread stating that it had happened after he had taken a week off and wondered if it was perhaps a significant factor. I was jumped on and told blah blah. No one really listened to that specific point but I'm telling you these things are significant. I questioned if perhaps he had gone partying for a week? People don't realize the affect alcohol has on their mind-set. It's not just when you are drunk or the hangover the next morning. Alcohol is a weird drug and to play ultimate poker one would be better off to never drink alcohol. I am 100% correct in stating this. The nuances of the game require mental alertness and an absence of variances in emotions in order to play to ones full potential. What does alcohol do? It induces variances in emotions. It send the crazy-monkey-mind into overdrive even in the most sane individuals. Okay, you wake up sober but the mind doesn't just immediately go back to normal. The fantasy scenarios induced by the alcohol initiate bad mental habits. As I said, you can't just flick on a switch when playing poker. If the mind is whacky when drunk for 6 hours it won't be just back to perfect 3 or 5 days later you know. You still carry some of that fantasy life around with you a few days later while you walk down the street and while you drive the car. And if you are in fantasy when doing those things it will be the same when you play poker that evening or the next morning. Okay you won't be in fantasy thinking the exact same things as when drunk but the bad mental habits are still being practised.

#8 pokerjunkie

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 06:43 PM

gamera (2012-11-06) Interesting topic.

The problem is emotional variance when we win and when we start losing. We feel too good when we win and then when variance kicks in and we lose some back we can't handle it and start to sulk. You won't cure it at the time it is happening as it's a mind-set of emotional stability that you either have all the time all day every day or else you don't have it. You can't just switch it on when you play poker or when on a good or bad run or whatever. If you don't have it right now reading this thread then you won't have in an hours time when you are hit with 3 suck-outs in 3 minutes. It's the crazy-monkey-mind playing fantasy games and running at 5 million miles per hour. It's hard to control.

Interesting to see Eire Abu mentioned. I remember at the start of his downswing I started a thread stating that it had happened after he had taken a week off and wondered if it was perhaps a significant factor. I was jumped on and told blah blah. No one really listened to that specific point but I'm telling you these things are significant. I questioned if perhaps he had gone partying for a week? People don't realize the affect alcohol has on their mind-set. It's not just when you are drunk or the hangover the next morning. Alcohol is a weird drug and to play ultimate poker one would be better off to never drink alcohol. I am 100% correct in stating this. The nuances of the game require mental alertness and an absence of variances in emotions in order to play to ones full potential. What does alcohol do? It induces variances in emotions. It send the crazy-monkey-mind into overdrive even in the most sane individuals. Okay, you wake up sober but the mind doesn't just immediately go back to normal. The fantasy scenarios induced by the alcohol initiate bad mental habits. As I said, you can't just flick on a switch when playing poker. If the mind is whacky when drunk for 6 hours it won't be just back to perfect 3 or 5 days later you know. You still carry some of that fantasy life around with you a few days later while you walk down the street and while you drive the car. And if you are in fantasy when doing those things it will be the same when you play poker that evening or the next morning. Okay you won't be in fantasy thinking the exact same things as when drunk but the bad mental habits are still being practised.



Excellent post... and good topic OP...


Everyone here is aware of the evils of tilting, but that's only when losing.


The aspect of 'winner's tilt' is interesting, because we've all done it. You hit a nice rush, play well and suddenly you've already 'made a good month and have winnings to play with', so suddenly you decide to play a little differently and see if you can ride your rush.


Ilari and obviously Isildur are two of the higher players who maybe do this, but yeah, from the Hand History section and the comments here, Ilari was a little sick unlucky to have lost that 900K, but he's still nicely up for the last couple of weeks.








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