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heres why poker is all about luck


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#1 WELK

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:22 PM

hey there,
i like to think of myself as an analytical and realistic person. i know bad beats r part of the game and that they r even necessary to keep worse players in the game. i constantly have deep runs in tournies and over the last year and esp the last 2 month the beats i took late in tournies really disapointed me.
here a hand from the big22 on pokerstars from last week: utg+2 minraised, i 3bet from hj with AA with A of hearts. flop is J72 all hearts. vilian donks into me small, i raise, he shoves, i call, river is K of spades.
sure that beat happens about 1,5 out of 10 times, but i really feel like it is all about when, ie in what kind of situation u have to take bad beats.
who cares if u win that hand 8,5 times in an early stage or against a small stack (at least i dont).
so for me it really comes down to distribution of wins and loses. and thats all about luck.

looking forward to ur opinions, maybe ull find something that motivates me again

#2 REYMARTZ

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:29 PM

close her down...... MODS

#3 babbage

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:32 PM

here a hand from the big22 on pokerstars from last week: utg+2 minraised, i 3bet from hj with AA with A of hearts. flop is J72 all hearts. vilian donks into me small, i raise, he shoves, i call, river is K of spades.
sure that beat happens about 1,5 out of 10 times, but i really feel like it is all about when, ie in what kind of situation u have to take bad beats.
who cares if u win that hand 8,5 times in an early stage or against a small stack (at least i dont).
so for me it really comes down to distribution of wins and loses. and thats all about luck.

so im assuming the other guy had kj?? pretty standard stuff here.

#4 DTz

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:37 PM

if poker is all bout luck .. why do u c the same faces in final tables everyday?? ....

#5 eliteneo

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:53 PM

lol we got another fish here boyz. make sure to not tap the glass and agree. yup poker is a luck game.
Anyone know when phil ivey's 10 year heater will stop?

#6 fairyland

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:01 PM

If its mostly skill how do you explain Eireabus graph/resuts at pokerstars? Is he skilled or not?

#7 koala993

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:03 PM

Are you refering to the meta luck concept http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/meta-luck-concept-855943/ ?Basically it states how your games / results may be influenced regarding when in a tournament or at which limit you take your beats (both bad and good beats).
"Sick, two hundred dollar bottle of Coke? Ship it." durrrr

#8 nodrugs4u

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:37 PM

Yes obv tournies have huge variance in the way you mention too. NL and PL cash games less variance. Limit cash games even less. Maybe you should think of picking a new poker format to play.

#9 abyNorman

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 08:06 PM

Welk,
I agree :poker is very much a game of luck.
For instance:
Your chance to get a flush, a winning (?) hand was about 0.35.
But the variance means that you can fail to get the flush very many times.
( You could suspect that your opponent had something like: JT,QJ,KJ,AJ, ev. flush.)
You have to play that in mind: betting high enough in time, which means only that
you can exclude some of the random bad beats.
Counting probabilities isn't really the right way. Studying how lucky the winners are
tells more.
Studying the high stakes PLO-players attitude to the luck ( gambling ) can give you some
hint about what the money means and how much you must be prepared to offer in order
to know if the luck ( variance ) is on your side.
It would be nice with a discussion about how to avoid bad beats !




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