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When the durrrrer becomes the durrrree


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#1 zeDscherman

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:00 PM

Just wanted to share my thoughts on this... is it possible that Tom Dwan is totally outclassed in today's poker ecosystem? I mean, 4 years ago he was unbeatable and nowadays it seems like he couldn't beat the PLO5k tables anymore (skill wise, not putting pressure on ultra nosebleed-stakes). We all remember how the "old pros" stopped playing online because youngsters like him and many of them went broke or just stopped playing altogether. Others focused on tournaments, but it seems to me that RIGHT NOW, there are just a LOT of players that could (and are in fact) destroy Dwan HU any stakes any game :S


Sauce is the biggest beast ever... Cates is just amazing, Galfond probably the best PLO player... the new PS unknowns are very very very good players, too... and you always have Ivey and Antonius (but these two are on a league of their own).


Do you guys think Dwan will be able to get back his edge? I personally doubt it. The game in PS at 5k upwards is just flawless... really... nothing to do with the Full Tilt madness ... Sauce still finds the way to send everyone broke but.... jeeeez I would not be comfortable if I were Durrrr playing with ANYONE online anymore (as the lost Millie- 1.5 M downswing shows).


Anyway, just talking... wanted to see what you guys think! Its something every poker player has to go through I guess but... still wondering if he will come back... because playing 2-7 , limit and PLO with these guys at these stakes can be very very VERY expensive! If he hasn't 4 or 5 million laying around... might bust pretty soon if he keeps playing em!


gl gl

#2 dtp92

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:13 PM

New HSDB article about his current run: http://www.highstake...kes-tables.aspx

#3 curry_dan

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:32 PM

He's lost 777K in 3 days... so what?

He hasn't played online for months, he's gone on huge downswings before, he's had huge upswings after downswings before. It's all just swings.


He could easily go and lose a million or two more, but it would be foolish to bet against him winning it all back and then some.


I'm sure he's not as worried as you about his game.


Relax and enjoy the roller coaster (swings).

#4 wurrr

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:39 PM

did you realize that he lost over 800k just in the draw games?

maybe thats where he should think about his game, holdem/omaha/ omaha hilo he was breakeven

#5 seany1888

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:41 PM

LOL, durrrr has plenty of money. He's talking about playing a bot HU at Limit Hold'em, so I think money is the last of his worries right now.

In addition, most of his "$1.5 mill loss" which is actually less (I believe) was at 200/400 2-7 NL, a game I doubt durrrr has much experience in. If you really believe he'd act so irrationally with the last of his money then I guess that's up to you. Personally I think he's either had a lot invested previously/got a good deal of FTP/won big in Macau.


Only time will tell I guess.
Durrrr and Gus own.

#6 ILUVTEDDYBEARS

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:50 PM

Just variance imo.... I think you need a larger sample to make a statement like that Sir.
I like it loud !

#7 dom.com

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:50 PM

you really have know idea how rich these guys are for one. and downswings do happen its part of the game. tom is up and down like this all the time this is nothing new. tomorrow he'll win a million and it will be another post calling him the greatest player ever.

#8 BustACap

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:10 PM

seany1888 (2012-12-05) LOL, durrrr has plenty of money. He's talking about playing a bot HU at Limit Hold'em, so I think money is the last of his worries right now.

In addition, most of his "$1.5 mill loss" which is actually less (I believe) was at 200/400 2-7 NL, a game I doubt durrrr has much experience in. If you really believe he'd act so irrationally with the last of his money then I guess that's up to you. Personally I think he's either had a lot invested previously/got a good deal of FTP/won big in Macau.


Only time will tell I guess.



#9 hatethis

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:22 PM

lol he has never been unbeatable..maybe at live highstakes...but not online. But i really like him..dont get me wrong...he is def one of my favourite players.
i am the greatest

#10 zeDscherman

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:51 PM

As I said... COMPARED to Sauce and the gang... it seems like a very hard thing to battle it out with these guys that are on top of their game and come out victorious/not broke... thats all I said. Don't matter if PLO, NL (Kanu, Jungle... Sauce..) or specially the other games where he seems to be a massive underdog. THE QUESTION WAS:

Does anyone think he will be able to compete with these guys ONLINE and not go broke?

#11 fish finder

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 10:29 PM

to many people on this site without a single clue how high variance a game poker is, period.

#12 LostSam

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 10:29 PM

I'd say his online game will need a lot of work to get back to the highest level. The game changes and evolves as different players change their style, and the good guys learn from it. Look at Isildur, for example - he completely changed how high stakes holdem was played. Dwan will adapt in time; it might cost him a million or two, but he'll get back there. And if money was truly an issue, he'd jump down stakes to get back into it. Getting back into playing the highest possible stakes (that are running) against the best in the world shows he's willing to pay premium amounts for the lessons. :P

Regardless, it's exciting stuff! Let's hope he gets rolled again so we can see some epic sessions.

#13 fisher1414

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 10:49 PM

zeDscherman (2012-12-05) As I said... COMPARED to Sauce and the gang... it seems like a very hard thing to battle it out with these guys that are on top of their game and come out victorious/not broke... thats all I said. Don't matter if PLO, NL (Kanu, Jungle... Sauce..) or specially the other games where he seems to be a massive underdog. THE QUESTION WAS:

Does anyone think he will be able to compete with these guys ONLINE and not go broke?



you seriously asking if he'll go broke?


I bet the million he's lost online these last few days is a fraction of his networth. Guys like him have been playing single pots in Macau worth over a million dollay


If you look at his HSDB graph youll realize he's had 5million$ swings before...this is just another day in the life of tow dwan

#14 denis x007x

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 11:00 PM

macao really did a number on dwan messed up his online game a lot


u can expect more losing sessions from dwan


i guarantee it

#15 zeDscherman

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 11:06 PM

fish finder (2012-12-05) to many people on this site without a single clue how high variance a game poker is, period.





I am really fed up with the fact that it is absolutely impossible to say ANYTHING on this forum... even if its just asking for an opinion without haters just being all aggro without any reason... probably because they are fanboys loosing players at the micros... I am going to do this every time I hear some stupid comments. Played a lot of poker 2008-2009 I DO UNDERSTAND variance and the principles of poker... ok, i might not be the sharpest pencil but i was a winning player at NL100 and 200... so PLEASE I am just asking for an opinion, if you don't want to answer or just stay in love with whatever your favourite player is... then its ok, but do not show up with stupid hating comments!


Here is my lifetime played hands... not played in 2 years now but..as I said... I KNOW WHAT VARIANCE IS!

#16 andy beaumont

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 11:22 PM

zeDscherman (2012-12-05) 

fish finder (2012-12-05) to many people on this site without a single clue how high variance a game poker is, period.





I am really fed up with the fact that it is absolutely impossible to say ANYTHING on this forum... even if its just asking for an opinion without haters just being all aggro without any reason... probably because they are fanboys loosing players at the micros... I am going to do this every time I hear some stupid comments. Played a lot of poker 2008-2009 I DO UNDERSTAND variance and the principles of poker... ok, i might not be the sharpest pencil but i was a winning player at NL100 and 200... so PLEASE I am just asking for an opinion, if you don't want to answer or just stay in love with whatever your favourite player is... then its ok, but do not show up with stupid hating comments!


Here is my lifetime played hands... not played in 2 years now but..as I said... I KNOW WHAT VARIANCE IS!



that's the way it has to be done! Man i love ze germanz

#17 JynxTheLynx

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 11:22 PM

I think 3/4's of a million is nothing to Dwan now, he probably plays so high in Macau that dropping 750k in one sit in is nothing, I think he is playing for the big cash now, I will question him when he loses over 5 million

#18 fish finder

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:24 AM

zeDscherman (2012-12-05) 

fish finder (2012-12-05) to many people on this site without a single clue how high variance a game poker is, period.





I am really fed up with the fact that it is absolutely impossible to say ANYTHING on this forum... even if its just asking for an opinion without haters just being all aggro without any reason... probably because they are fanboys loosing players at the micros... I am going to do this every time I hear some stupid comments. Played a lot of poker 2008-2009 I DO UNDERSTAND variance and the principles of poker... ok, i might not be the sharpest pencil but i was a winning player at NL100 and 200... so PLEASE I am just asking for an opinion, if you don't want to answer or just stay in love with whatever your favourite player is... then its ok, but do not show up with stupid hating comments!


Here is my lifetime played hands... not played in 2 years now but..as I said... I KNOW WHAT VARIANCE IS!





No offence intended but its the premise of your question sir. dwan plays 8k hands at high stakes and you're asking if today he is totally outclassed...? come on now; variance doesn't even out at 100k hands let alone 8. this doesnt mean i dont think the level of play has gotten tougher at high stakes, but his loss means nothing in my opinion.


im not hating i just dont find the question to be serious that's all. sorry to disappoint

#19 WELK

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:52 AM

imo durrrr has never been able to beat the PLO5k tables. he made his money years ago playing nlh.

#20 lov2raise

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:26 AM

Tom Dwan is a living legend, his rise to the top was made in approx 2 years and he was a ****ing child 17 or 18 at the time, hes showed that hes a fast learner and a very intelligent person. His aggressive style of play is the reason we llove watching him play, he may not be the guy with the best ROI in the business but sometimes i wonder if he just plays the way he plays because he loves action, and if he were to play a nittier style he was prob able to make even more money.. so yeah.. LEGEND.
Play Poker, Live fast, die young




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