Posted 2012-04-29 03:44
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Live 5/10 NL, Effective Stacks $1200
Hero opens UTG with AdKd to $40
Folds to Villain, UTG+2, who makes it $110 to go.
Villain is loose, but typically passive Asian guy. He has been straddling the last few rounds and I have seen him reraise QQs twice pre-flop in this session. One time he min-raised from to $100 to $200 from the straddle with QQ, and the other time he opened to $80.
I have played with him before and have seldom seen him get out of line in this spot, so I put him on a strong hand. I know that on the internet, this is an instant 4-bet typically in my spot, but really, I kind of felt that the WEAKEST hand he was doing this with pre-flop was JJ--NEVER AQ or a bluff here. He really isn't the type to three-bet AK pre-flop either--especially not in this position where there is not a lot of dead money pre-flop. I think I could get him off JJ with a 4-bet, but never QQ. With QQ, he's going with it.
Anyhow, I elect to call, and see a flop. (I'm happy to debate this with y'all but the main question is post-flop)
Flop comes 2s4s5d, Pot ~ $220
I check to him (? let me know your thoughts) and he fires $125.
Pot $345
What's my best play here?
Stack $1100
Some thoughts to consider: Our ~ equity against QQ on that flop is 39% with AdKd here, so once he bets, if we're pretty sure that's what he has, we're getting very close to the right price to bet/3bet or check/raise then call it off with AK here IF we think we have ANY fold equity in the hand whatsoever--which I think we might seldom get when he has QQ, and occasionally get against JJ and almost certainly the FEW times he has AK or TT (which he will ALWAYS fold for his stack here).
Once he bets, with $1100 left behind, the total pot-size, if he calls a shove, will be $2545.
$1100/$2545 = 0.43, which means we need that much pot equity to call a shove IF we have no fold equity. Given that we know our pot equity is 39% against queens and Jacks, AND we sometimes have fold equity with other hands, is shipping it the right play?
Or does he show up with AA or KK WAY too much here to justify the shipping it in play? (Bear in mind that with an A and K in our hand, there are only 9 combos of AA and KK, vs the regular 12. (Obv this also DECREASES the chance that he has AK as well)
What do people think of betting into him on the flop?
What do people think of check-folding?
What do people think of check-calling? (Some interesting bluffing opportunities could arise from your end, but at the same time you will be playing out of position, although your hand is FAR more disguised than his hand)
What do people think of check-raising?
2012-04-29 23:58 by
McBain86
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Posted 2012-04-29 04:03
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This is just my opinion, but AK suited pre-flop is a definite 3bet. He shoves, you call. With AK you want to see all 5 cards. Unless you have a read that he most likely has AA or KK, then laying down AK suited pre means you're playing too high for your bankroll. Just my opinion. Get it in pre.Anyway, you played it snug and call, and you put him on QQ. You have 2 overs,gustshot and back door flush draw. I think you definitely at least call. I wouldn't reraise unless you're prepared to ship it. Check/fold is awful, you cant do that. call and re-evaluate the turn i'd say. tho i still say you should've 3bet preflop.
2012-04-29 04:06 by
trumbo
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Posted 2012-04-29 04:18
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Check raising is horrible given what you said preflop. Without knowing the player i cant say whether flatting preflop or 4betting is best, in general with 100bbs or a bit above 4betting AKs really cant be that bad and is generally the play. But if you do decide to flat preflop then you have already made the choice that his preflop range is really nutted, like JJ+ and given this by check raising you probably wont get him to fold any of his value hands (the overpairs) and only possibly bluff him off the same hand AK. So if you call preflop, call and re evaluate, if you dont improve the turn and he bets, then fold. If you do hit a pair/ flush draw or your str8, then the best play is to check call both the turn and the river. As when you are ahead on the turn you are generally way ahead so there is no need to protect and the hands that will call a check raise that you are ahead of will probably bet both streets anyway. The main problem with raising would be that you fold out any of his potential bluffs.
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Posted 2012-04-29 04:19
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oh and betting into him, terrible, its impossible to balance a donking range on this board and again if you are calling instead of 4betting its because you are already putting him on a really nutted range and betting into that range on this board is horrible, as you dont really rep many strong hands and he will have plenty of strong hands himself that he is never folding
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Posted 2012-04-29 04:48
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if you truly believe he isnt getting out line pre then call is the worst option. in position i just flat this all day but oop against a 3bet with ak sucks unless you know they are doing it light.
on flop i might just peel since its a small bet and do stuff on turns that are good for our hand/scare cards
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Posted 2012-04-29 07:26
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I've been thinking that the correct line is peel a card, re-evaluate turn.
Sometimes it gets checked through (or you can bluff) if a straight or flush card appears, sometimes you can hit your King or Ace or straight card, or backdoor flush draw.
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Posted 2012-04-29 08:41
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Please don't be one of those people who leaves it hanging for 2 days. How about telling us how it wound up? You checked raised him, he shoved, you called, and you both had AK, right?
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Posted 2012-04-29 09:00
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Without knowing what we should assume his image of you to be, I believe that this is too marginal of a situation to provide much useful feedback on.
That said: I would likely rep KK or AA and check raise.
IMO check calling is a less optimal play. The only scare cards that don't hit you and you can rep are the Q's and spades. I'd consider the odds of him calling you with JJ and QQ if one's a spade (assuming he calls with KK and AA, one spade) if any spade comes. Also, any of the non spade cards that make your hand (A/K/3) kill the action if you are ahead but encourage you to ship if your behind. And you can likely negate some incremental value of representing spades if the A/K/3 of spades.
I think leading pot or less is your worst play. IMO, his correct play is to raise with any two cards (given board texture IMO more correct for him to raise now than call/raise turn).
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Posted 2012-04-29 12:53
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Some horrible advice here about 4 betting.
If the villain at worst has JJ preflop, and never AQ or bluff (which most likely isn't true, but we'll have to help OP to play best according to his read, since we have no other info), then AKs is a horrible hand. You're flipping with JJ and QQ, tied with AK and crushed against AA and KK. Since your equity is bad, and villain isn't bluffing 4 betting is not a viable option, it's just burning money. Calling oop in a 3bet pot against a value range that beats your hand and is very hard to bluff is terribad. If you were in positon, calling would be the best option, if you are confident in your post flop play.
When your read your opponent to be this strong, and you are oop with AK, you should just fold. Yes, fold AKs preflop to a single 3bet, when you are oop and read the opponent to be this strong. I think your read of villains range is most likely a bit wrong, but if you don't play according to your reads, then you aren't playing at all.
As played, post flop is a tough spot, but I would peel an see what happens on the turn. The bet is small enough to give enough wiggle room on turn to give you some options. Raising is pretty horrible. He isn't folding JJ, QQ, KK or AA so you're either splitting (which he might or might not fold, if he is as loose and passive you make it seem, he's likely to just call and make the turn really hard to play), so you are getting it in to split or a in a bit of a bad situation or absolutely crushed. Not a good spot. Folding is much better than raising.
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Posted 2012-04-29 13:53
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IMO this might be one of the situations were u can just muck AK preflop. u raised UTG, and a tight passive player 3bets you, whom you put on a very nutted range here. best u can hope is to flop top pair, which 1) wont get u much action if he has JJ/QQ, or 2) really puts you in trouble when the case card flops and you have to play for stacks, being almost drawing dead. to me, this is a fold or a 4bet, and normally i would 4bet all day long, but in this case, meh, fold, next hand...
as played, i would check call and peel one here. u wont get him to fold a hand which beats u with a checkraise here, especially for 100bb and him having QQ. what are u repping? 22, 33, 55, which u open raised UTG? A4 u called a threebet with? KK, AA, u just flatted pre oop? it will look to him like a flushdraw, and if he is a thinking player, he will get it in here, even with TT i guess...
check call, u get a lot of good bluffing cards. also, he might be a little bit weaker than u think here, u might have him beat, u never know. my point is, u dont get him to fold ANY value hand he has here with a checkraise, and otherwise u have him beat ( altought this seems unlikely)
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