Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker.

WCS064 (2012-09-21)

XleprechaunX (2012-09-21)

"""""" Just to clarify, I wasn't saying he would guarantee 15% interest of a CD. I was saying the income from the CD would be guaranteed, regardless of the rate. 15% was my estimate on a rate for a long term $1M CD.""""

WSC064,
Your estimation on a long term "Jumbo CD" is 15%? Galfond started BF in 2009, which was during the sub-prime crush so to say that he can get 15% return on a Jumbo Cd is a ludicrous and an ignorant statement with no merit. Your statement of getting passive income of 10% to 15% on a CD is like me saying i don't understand why people invest in real estate when they have the risk of the housing market dropping. You can easier put 1M dollars to buy T Bonds from the Government and get a 50% return in 5 years. "Today's rate is near 10%? LOL. Have you checked today's interest rates on CDs?

For your information, I worked in the banking industry. My ex roommate was a personal banker for Washington Mutual for over ten years before they got bought out by Chase; Also, one of my close friends is a manager who have worked for Bank of America for years. They both agreed that no bank is going to give you a fix 15% return on a one million dollar investment regardless of the term. To my knowledge, when interest rates are high, banks offer lower interest on longer term jumbo Cd because they do not want to lock in the higher rates in case interest rates fall.

You are making assumptions about me and you have no idea who I am or what i do. I started playing online poker full time in late 2004(when the game was extremely soft) and crushed Mid and low stakes for years and quit because of Black Friday. I do not have 1M liquid to put into a CD, but if you can show me one offering 15% I'm sure I will have a lot of investors lined up.

Talk is very cheap. Prove me wrong and show me a bank that is backed by the FDIC within the past 10 years that gives 15% return on a million dollar investment. What is the point? This is coming from a guy that is saying today's rate on a Jumbo long term CD is 10%. With today's interest rates you would be lucky if you can lock in 5% return on a jumbo CD.

By your own numbers (7%), all I'd have to do to make my estimation 100% correct is change the initial principal investment from $1M to $2M. I could literally go change it from $1M to $2M right now, and the whole point of my post would remain exactly the same. I will go change it if it will get you to stop talking about this.

I made it very clear that the 15% was an estimation off the top of my head. I don't understand why you are acting like I'm posting about CD's. The post was about poker players investing money vs starting a poker related business. I think poker players w/ capital can do better by investing their money rather than putting a ton of time and energy into rarely successful poker related businesses. Thats the whole entire point of my post and you haven't even said a word about it.

I'm sure you know 100x more about banking than I do. I'm sure you have more money. I'm sure you have more experience investing, and I'm sure you know way more bankers. I have very little money invested, know very little about it, and know exactly 0 bankers. Nothing disgusts me more or interests me less than our banking industry.

What else do you want? You have the superior banking knowledge. I'm just a poker fan. I'm so sorry for ever even trying to talk about banking. I promise I will never, ever do it again.

ROI is related to the asset risk and time NOT to the amount of money you put in. if a T-bond pays 4% return that 4% will not change if you buy 100k or 100M of them.

CDs will NEVER offer you anywhere close to 7% when the cost of money is close to 0%, FED cut all rates and did Quantitative Easing 3 on sept 13th pumping another 40 Billion $ per month into the economy which made borrowing money even cheaper.

Author	Message
Posted 2012-09-20 16:33
curry_dan Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 1 357, Visits: 6 047	Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. The site he helped create, and left in 2011. http://www.onlinepoker.net/poker-news/general-poker-news/phil-galfond-sues-share-bluefire-poker-profits/16730
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Posted 2012-09-20 17:10
dubphiziks Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-14 Posts: 27, Visits: 298	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. I really don't see Phil Galfond being the type to sue without good cause, so good luck to him, hope he gets what he is owed.
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Posted 2012-09-20 17:43
babbage Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-18 Posts: 771, Visits: 1 811	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. good luck with that.
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Posted 2012-09-20 18:03
The Unit Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 54, Visits: 1 118	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. another case for Judge Judy!
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Posted 2012-09-20 20:17
Icccfold Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 649, Visits: 3 248	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. what is a CD how would you get a guaranteed 15% interest on it? Seems high and I must be missing something if a loan is given at X% and an investment returns XX%. The math doesn't make sense. Edited 2012-09-20 20:18 by Icccfold
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Posted 2012-09-20 20:25
XleprechaunX Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 8, Visits: 474	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. If you set up a $1M CD, you earn roughly $150k/year in interest. Thats $450k in 3 years, more than Galfond has made w/ Blue Fire. Not to mention that he wouldn't have ever had to do anything for the money, unlike BF, and the money would have been guaranteed, unlike BF. You could also buy $1M worth of T Bills for a decent non risk, guaranteed return on your investment. WCS064, In regards to your statement, that if you set up a 1 MillionCD, you can earn roughly 150k per year in interest and after three years youmake 450k. What you are implying is an annual return of 15%. After tax, assuming you are not making asingle dollar from anything else you are taking home roughly 108k(72% off 150k)which is a 10.8% guaranteed return on your investment. I can't remember within the past decade where a traditionalCD have yield more than 7%. As far as theinterest rate on a ten year T bond goes,yesterday's closing price is only 1.782%. Only a hand full of stock investors in the world average anannual return of 20% over a long periodof time. Show me a bank that offer a CD giving15% return per year that is backed by the FDIC and I will invest my money in a heartbeat. Moreover, I'm hoping I'm wrong because Iwould love to get 15% return per year and so is 90-99% of the general public.
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Posted 2012-09-21 05:55
XleprechaunX Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 8, Visits: 474	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. """""" Just to clarify, I wasn't saying he would guarantee 15% interest of a CD. I was saying the income from the CD would be guaranteed, regardless of the rate. 15% was my estimate on a rate for a long term $1M CD."""" WSC064, Your estimation on a long term "Jumbo CD" is 15%? Galfond started BF in 2009, which was during the sub-prime crush so to say that he can get 15% return on a Jumbo Cd is a ludicrous and an ignorant statement with no merit. Your statement of getting passive income of 10% to 15% on a CD is like me saying i don't understand why people invest in real estate when they have the risk of the housing market dropping. You can easier put 1M dollars to buy T Bonds from the Government and get a 50% return in 5 years. "Today's rate is near 10%? LOL. Have you checked today's interest rates on CDs? For your information, I worked in the banking industry. My ex roommate was a personal banker for Washington Mutual for over ten years before they got bought out by Chase; Also, one of my close friends is a manager who have worked for Bank of America for years. They both agreed that no bank is going to give you a fix 15% return on a one million dollar investment regardless of the term. To my knowledge, when interest rates are high, banks offer lower interest on longer term jumbo Cd because they do not want to lock in the higher rates in case interest rates fall. You are making assumptions about me and you have no idea who I am or what i do. I started playing online poker full time in late 2004(when the game was extremely soft) and crushed Mid and low stakes for years and quit because of Black Friday. I do not have 1M liquid to put into a CD, but if you can show me one offering 15% I'm sure I will have a lot of investors lined up. Talk is very cheap. Prove me wrong and show me a bank that is backed by the FDIC within the past 10 years that gives 15% return on a million dollar investment. What is the point? This is coming from a guy that is saying today's rate on a Jumbo long term CD is 10%. With today's interest rates you would be lucky if you can lock in 5% return on a jumbo CD. Edited 2012-09-21 05:57 by XleprechaunX
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Posted 2012-09-21 12:24
zeDscherman Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-18 Posts: 104, Visits: 455	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. XleprechaunX (2012-09-20) If you set up a $1M CD, you earn roughly $150k/year in interest. Thats $450k in 3 years, more than Galfond has made w/ Blue Fire. Not to mention that he wouldn't have ever had to do anything for the money, unlike BF, and the money would have been guaranteed, unlike BF. You could also buy $1M worth of T Bills for a decent non risk, guaranteed return on your investment. WCS064, In regards to your statement, that if you set up a 1 MillionCD, you can earn roughly 150k per year in interest and after three years youmake 450k. What you are implying is an annual return of 15%. After tax, assuming you are not making asingle dollar from anything else you are taking home roughly 108k(72% off 150k)which is a 10.8% guaranteed return on your investment. I can't remember within the past decade where a traditionalCD have yield more than 7%. As far as theinterest rate on a ten year T bond goes,yesterday's closing price is only 1.782%. Only a hand full of stock investors in the world average anannual return of 20% over a long periodof time. Show me a bank that offer a CD giving15% return per year that is backed by the FDIC and I will invest my money in a heartbeat. Moreover, I'm hoping I'm wrong because Iwould love to get 15% return per year and so is 90-99% of the general public. Hey guys, as I have mentioned before I have worked (until recently) for over 1,5 years in a well known swiss bank in the private equity and wealth management department... and it is TRUE that with investments over 500....600k you can get very good returns. 15% might be just a little bit too much... you can definitely get that kind of RoI but NOT without going into more "risky" assets... with some kind of realistic default possibility. Specially in the last couple of years, with the Greek/Irish bailouts and their treasury bonds through the roof... i have certainly seen IR in the 20% pa area... but A MORE REALISTIC virtually "RISK FREE" number would be 8-12%pa. on investments for 5-year investments. Hope this helps. Of course imho poker players are different since they can have much higher RoIs playing cash games and so on... but if I were to have 1mega cash laying around... it would definitely go to the 5year-10% investment eyes closed!... 500k in 5 years... not worrying about a thing. Not too much of a "ballament gambooool" but... Im sure Isil and Ilari have never even heard about these deposits... haha
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Posted 2012-09-21 19:09
XleprechaunX Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 8, Visits: 474	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. Zedscherman, Thank you for your input on the matter. My dispute with WSC064 wasn't the fact that there isn't any investments that yield 15% annual return. I am aware that there are investments that yield extremely high return, but with higher return the higher the risk. My argument with WSC064 is that Galfond started BF in 2009, which is during the peak of the sub-prime crash. He is claiming that Galfond would have been better off putting 1 million dollars into a "Risk Free" CD and get a 15% ROI. In today's economy, banks are giving out 15 years loan on mortgages for as low as 3-5%, getting 15% or anything remote close to it from a bank backed by the FDIC is unrealistic.
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Posted 2012-09-21 21:55
andy beaumont Group: Forum Members Last login: 2013-05-21 Posts: 209, Visits: 1 215	RE: Phil Galfond sues BlueFire Poker. WCS064 (2012-09-21) XleprechaunX (2012-09-21) """""" Just to clarify, I wasn't saying he would guarantee 15% interest of a CD. I was saying the income from the CD would be guaranteed, regardless of the rate. 15% was my estimate on a rate for a long term $1M CD."""" WSC064, Your estimation on a long term "Jumbo CD" is 15%? Galfond started BF in 2009, which was during the sub-prime crush so to say that he can get 15% return on a Jumbo Cd is a ludicrous and an ignorant statement with no merit. Your statement of getting passive income of 10% to 15% on a CD is like me saying i don't understand why people invest in real estate when they have the risk of the housing market dropping. You can easier put 1M dollars to buy T Bonds from the Government and get a 50% return in 5 years. "Today's rate is near 10%? LOL. Have you checked today's interest rates on CDs? For your information, I worked in the banking industry. My ex roommate was a personal banker for Washington Mutual for over ten years before they got bought out by Chase; Also, one of my close friends is a manager who have worked for Bank of America for years. They both agreed that no bank is going to give you a fix 15% return on a one million dollar investment regardless of the term. To my knowledge, when interest rates are high, banks offer lower interest on longer term jumbo Cd because they do not want to lock in the higher rates in case interest rates fall. You are making assumptions about me and you have no idea who I am or what i do. I started playing online poker full time in late 2004(when the game was extremely soft) and crushed Mid and low stakes for years and quit because of Black Friday. I do not have 1M liquid to put into a CD, but if you can show me one offering 15% I'm sure I will have a lot of investors lined up. Talk is very cheap. Prove me wrong and show me a bank that is backed by the FDIC within the past 10 years that gives 15% return on a million dollar investment. What is the point? This is coming from a guy that is saying today's rate on a Jumbo long term CD is 10%. With today's interest rates you would be lucky if you can lock in 5% return on a jumbo CD. By your own numbers (7%), all I'd have to do to make my estimation 100% correct is change the initial principal investment from $1M to $2M. I could literally go change it from $1M to $2M right now, and the whole point of my post would remain exactly the same. I will go change it if it will get you to stop talking about this. I made it very clear that the 15% was an estimation off the top of my head. I don't understand why you are acting like I'm posting about CD's. The post was about poker players investing money vs starting a poker related business. I think poker players w/ capital can do better by investing their money rather than putting a ton of time and energy into rarely successful poker related businesses. Thats the whole entire point of my post and you haven't even said a word about it. I'm sure you know 100x more about banking than I do. I'm sure you have more money. I'm sure you have more experience investing, and I'm sure you know way more bankers. I have very little money invested, know very little about it, and know exactly 0 bankers. Nothing disgusts me more or interests me less than our banking industry. What else do you want? You have the superior banking knowledge. I'm just a poker fan. I'm so sorry for ever even trying to talk about banking. I promise I will never, ever do it again. ROI is related to the asset risk and time NOT to the amount of money you put in. if a T-bond pays 4% return that 4% will not change if you buy 100k or 100M of them. CDs will NEVER offer you anywhere close to 7% when the cost of money is close to 0%, FED cut all rates and did Quantitative Easing 3 on sept 13th pumping another 40 Billion $ per month into the economy which made borrowing money even cheaper.
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