Dwan and Antonius mixes it up outside the ‘ring’

Well, for anyone who was expecting a tale of fisticuffs between the two players will be sorely disappointed. Aside from the fact that such an event would hardly be a big pay-per-view event, I have a feeling that the bout would have been too one-sided to be interesting. No, what I am referring to is just over 170 hands of $300/$600 PLO that they played yesterday. Maybe they feel like the stakes they play for in the challenge are getting too small...?



Regardless of this, Antonius might be regretting that these hands were not part of their ongoing duel since he ended the session a $116K winner, but I guess it is really true that hindsight is 20/20. Besides, for the last 30 minutes of their session, Phil Ivey joined the action, so the game was not played heads-up all the way.


Durrrr flops two pairs, a flush draw and an inside straight draw, but Ivey has top set and fades everything to take a $221K pot.


Even if he only played 36 hands, Ivey managed to win the largest pot of the day, and for durrrr, it was a bit of a cooler. He probably had some hopes that his hand was already the best, but he could also expect to have a number of winners to fall back on should he be behind. Now, not only was he trailing quite significantly, but his two pairs could not improve and Ivey held to tens to block durrrr’s inside straight draw. Despite this, durrrr was ‘only’ a 7-3 underdog on the flop which should show how good this flop would normally be for him. This time, though, it didn’t help him and it was in fact Ivey’s hand which improved to a straight in the end.


Durrrr flops two pairs against Antonius’ aces, but a running pair counterfeits durrrr’s hand and nets Antonius a $160K pot.


PLO is a game with very small margins and high variance, and the hand above is a good example of that. Here, durrrr flops two pairs and Antonius decides to go with his aces even though I am sure he knows he could be in a sticky spot. Durrrr is obviously pot committed since he has to call just over $23K in order to win almost $160K, so what Antonius has to ask himself is whether he gets the right odds against durrrr’s range. For an all-in push to be correct for Antonius, he needs to have at least 38,2% EV in this spot (61 095.50 / 159 990.50).


I spent 15-20 minutes trying to come up with what I felt was a realistic range for durrrr and calculating how Antonius’ hand held up against that. Obviously, that was at best an approximation, but it was interesting to see that my calculations showed that his EV was 37,9% or almost exactly what it needed to be for the push to be correct. Obviously, Antonius could not make said calculation on the few seconds he had at his disposal to make this decision, but I find it interesting even so to see that the numbers were so close.


I have posted my calculations below, so maybe someone will have some comments on this for the forum. Anyway, regardless of the odds, I am sure that Antonius was happy with the end result when the board paired on the river to give him a better two pairs than durrrr.


Hand type
EV against
Flushdraw 61,00 % 5,00 % 3,05 %
T9xx 59,40 % 5,00 % 2,97 %
T98x or similar 39,10 % 13,00 % 5,08 %
T9xx with a flush draw 40,50 % 6,00 % 2,43 %
Set 9,80 % 5,00 % 0,49 %
Pair and a flush draw 38,80 % 13,00 % 5,04 %
Two pairs 23,50 % 15,00 % 3,53 %
Two pairs and a flush draw 15,40 % 5,00 % 0,77 %
T987 20,10 % 5,00 % 1,01 %
KQJT 49,90 % 15,00 % 7,49 %
KQJx 59,90 % 8,00 % 4,79 %
T98x with a flush draw 26,00 % 5,00 % 1,30 %
  EV against range 37,94 %


And guys, don’t forget the bounty tournament at BETnGO.com on Thursday. For those you who haven’t heard about it. The details can be found here.


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